Aaron Rodgers signed a one-year contract worth up to $25 million with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the 2026 NFL season and has repeatedly confirmed it will be his 22nd and final year in the league. During organized team activities in May and again at training camp in July, the four-time MVP stated there is “zero debate” that he plans to retire after the campaign, crediting the reunion with head coach Mike McCarthy as a key factor in his decision to return for one more season at age 42. Traders reflect this skin-in-the-game consensus through the 98.5% implied probability that Rodgers will not retire before the 2026 season begins. The only realistic variables that could still shift the outcome include a significant preseason injury forcing an abrupt exit or an unforeseen personal development, both of which remain low-probability events given the quarterback’s recent public commitments and roster status.