Traders see an 84.5% implied probability against any Category 4 hurricane making US landfall before 2027, driven by mid-August 2026 Atlantic conditions showing neutral ENSO patterns and sea surface temperatures that favor below-average activity for the remaining season. NOAA seasonal outlooks highlight reduced major hurricane potential through November, with steering currents often promoting recurvature before landfall. Category 4 or higher US strikes remain infrequent historically, occurring in roughly one-third of seasons, and the narrow window left in 2026 limits opportunities for rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 4 thresholds. Model consensus and National Hurricane Center monitoring will continue to shape sentiment as any late-season systems develop.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% โอกาส
$340,068 ปริมาณ
$340,068 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
16% โอกาส
$340,068 ปริมาณ
$340,068 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Traders see an 84.5% implied probability against any Category 4 hurricane making US landfall before 2027, driven by mid-August 2026 Atlantic conditions showing neutral ENSO patterns and sea surface temperatures that favor below-average activity for the remaining season. NOAA seasonal outlooks highlight reduced major hurricane potential through November, with steering currents often promoting recurvature before landfall. Category 4 or higher US strikes remain infrequent historically, occurring in roughly one-third of seasons, and the narrow window left in 2026 limits opportunities for rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 4 thresholds. Model consensus and National Hurricane Center monitoring will continue to shape sentiment as any late-season systems develop.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$340,068วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Traders see an 84.5% implied probability against any Category 4 hurricane making US landfall before 2027, driven by mid-August 2026 Atlantic conditions showing neutral ENSO patterns and sea surface temperatures that favor below-average activity for the remaining season. NOAA seasonal outlooks highlight reduced major hurricane potential through November, with steering currents often promoting recurvature before landfall. Category 4 or higher US strikes remain infrequent historically, occurring in roughly one-third of seasons, and the narrow window left in 2026 limits opportunities for rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 4 thresholds. Model consensus and National Hurricane Center monitoring will continue to shape sentiment as any late-season systems develop.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$340,068วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see an 84.5% implied probability against any Category 4 hurricane making US landfall before 2027, driven by mid-August 2026 Atlantic conditions showing neutral ENSO patterns and sea surface temperatures that favor below-average activity for the remaining season. NOAA seasonal outlooks highlight reduced major hurricane potential through November, with steering currents often promoting recurvature before landfall. Category 4 or higher US strikes remain infrequent historically, occurring in roughly one-third of seasons, and the narrow window left in 2026 limits opportunities for rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 4 thresholds. Model consensus and National Hurricane Center monitoring will continue to shape sentiment as any late-season systems develop.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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