**Recent confirmed street works by Banksy underscore ongoing creative output, supporting the market’s 84% implied probability for a new mural or street artwork by year-end.** In September 2025, a politically charged mural appeared at London’s Royal Courts of Justice showing a judge striking a protester; it was quickly covered but authenticated as Banksy’s. December 2025 brought another London mural (or pair of identical pieces) depicting children stargazing, which the artist confirmed via Instagram within hours of discovery. Most recently, on April 30, 2026, Banksy verified a new sculpture in Waterloo Place—a suited figure stepping off a plinth with a flag obscuring his face—again using his official Instagram channel. These repeated interventions in 2025–2026 align with Banksy’s established pattern of sporadic but recurring public pieces, often in London and timed to current events. With roughly six-and-a-half months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date, traders appear to view additional output as the baseline expectation rather than an outlier. Key near-term catalysts include any high-profile news cycle or seasonal timing that has historically prompted new work, plus the artist’s continued use of Instagram for rapid authentication. While the exact timing of street art remains unpredictable, the frequency of verified pieces in the recent past drives the strong consensus behind the elevated Yes odds.