New York State Assemblymember-turned-Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed 2% surcharge on annual incomes above $1 million requires passage by the state legislature and signature from Governor Kathy Hochul, who has previously rejected comparable income-tax increases over concerns about resident out-migration and revenue volatility. Recent budget negotiations have instead centered on a separate pied-à-terre property surcharge already enacted at the state level, with ongoing litigation over its rollout further consuming Albany’s attention. The narrow window before 2027, combined with divided legislative priorities and historical resistance to new top-bracket rates, underpins traders’ strong consensus against enactment. Late-session budget deals or shifts in Hochul’s stance remain the primary variables that could still alter the trajectory.