Tesla’s heavy prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment in cities such as Austin and Dallas has kept the Robovan on the back burner, with no confirmed timelines or order windows announced since its 2024 concept reveal. Traders see the 94.5% “No” probability as reflecting Tesla’s focus on scaling the two-seat autonomous platform, regulatory scrutiny on larger vehicles, and historical delays in new product lines. A sudden regulatory breakthrough, major partnership, or executive pivot could still open preorders by year-end 2026, though current manufacturing and commercial priorities make that outcome unlikely.