**Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, already exceeding +3.0°C in key Niño regions during August 2026 and approaching or surpassing prior August records, combined with dynamical model consensus, underpin the 73.5% market-implied odds for a record 2026–27 El Niño.** NOAA’s September 10 diagnostic assigns over 90% probability to a very strong event this fall and winter, with a 75% chance that the October–December Relative Oceanic Niño Index reaches or exceeds the historic +2.5°C threshold that would surpass events since 1950. Ensemble forecasts, including multi-model medians near +3.6°C peak Niño-3.4 anomalies, align with or exceed the 1997–98 benchmark, though spread in individual runs and potential early decay introduce realistic downside scenarios. The next major model updates and official strength assessments are scheduled for early October.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
74% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Mar 31, 2027
74% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/**Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, already exceeding +3.0°C in key Niño regions during August 2026 and approaching or surpassing prior August records, combined with dynamical model consensus, underpin the 73.5% market-implied odds for a record 2026–27 El Niño.** NOAA’s September 10 diagnostic assigns over 90% probability to a very strong event this fall and winter, with a 75% chance that the October–December Relative Oceanic Niño Index reaches or exceeds the historic +2.5°C threshold that would surpass events since 1950. Ensemble forecasts, including multi-model medians near +3.6°C peak Niño-3.4 anomalies, align with or exceed the 1997–98 benchmark, though spread in individual runs and potential early decay introduce realistic downside scenarios. The next major model updates and official strength assessments are scheduled for early October.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$221วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/**Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, already exceeding +3.0°C in key Niño regions during August 2026 and approaching or surpassing prior August records, combined with dynamical model consensus, underpin the 73.5% market-implied odds for a record 2026–27 El Niño.** NOAA’s September 10 diagnostic assigns over 90% probability to a very strong event this fall and winter, with a 75% chance that the October–December Relative Oceanic Niño Index reaches or exceeds the historic +2.5°C threshold that would surpass events since 1950. Ensemble forecasts, including multi-model medians near +3.6°C peak Niño-3.4 anomalies, align with or exceed the 1997–98 benchmark, though spread in individual runs and potential early decay introduce realistic downside scenarios. The next major model updates and official strength assessments are scheduled for early October.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$221วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, already exceeding +3.0°C in key Niño regions during August 2026 and approaching or surpassing prior August records, combined with dynamical model consensus, underpin the 73.5% market-implied odds for a record 2026–27 El Niño.** NOAA’s September 10 diagnostic assigns over 90% probability to a very strong event this fall and winter, with a 75% chance that the October–December Relative Oceanic Niño Index reaches or exceeds the historic +2.5°C threshold that would surpass events since 1950. Ensemble forecasts, including multi-model medians near +3.6°C peak Niño-3.4 anomalies, align with or exceed the 1997–98 benchmark, though spread in individual runs and potential early decay introduce realistic downside scenarios. The next major model updates and official strength assessments are scheduled for early October.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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