Trader consensus assigns a near-certain implied probability against a Trump pardon for Tiger Woods by June 30, driven by the golfer's clean federal record and lack of any ongoing legal matters that would fall under presidential clemency authority. Woods has remained focused on PGA Tour events and major championships without recent arrests, investigations, or convictions, following resolution of prior personal matters years earlier. No administration signals or developments in the past month have altered this baseline, keeping the market anchored on the absence of qualifying circumstances. While improbable, late developments such as newly filed federal charges before the deadline could still theoretically reopen the possibility.