Traders assign overwhelming probability to no pardon for Tiger Woods by June 30 because the golfer maintains a clean legal record with no pending federal charges, investigations, or controversies that would meet standard criteria for executive clemency. Woods continues competing on the PGA Tour, focusing on major championships and recent form at events like the Masters, without any reported issues involving the justice system or administration priorities. While sudden developments such as an unexpected health setback, a late legal matter, or a shift in presidential focus could theoretically alter the outlook, current market pricing reflects the complete absence of qualifying circumstances in Woods' professional and personal situation.