Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA, ESA, and ground-based surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the 98.7% "No" consensus. Large-yield events remain statistically rare, occurring on century-scale intervals, while improving detection technology like wide-field telescopes and orbital tracking has cataloged most threatening objects well in advance. Traders price in this established data and low baseline frequency. Residual uncertainty could stem from a late discovery of a small, dark asteroid evading current surveys or minor orbital perturbations, though such scenarios would require rapid confirmation before year-end to alter resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1% tsansa
$116,329 Vol.
$116,329 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1% tsansa
$116,329 Vol.
$116,329 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA, ESA, and ground-based surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the 98.7% "No" consensus. Large-yield events remain statistically rare, occurring on century-scale intervals, while improving detection technology like wide-field telescopes and orbital tracking has cataloged most threatening objects well in advance. Traders price in this established data and low baseline frequency. Residual uncertainty could stem from a late discovery of a small, dark asteroid evading current surveys or minor orbital perturbations, though such scenarios would require rapid confirmation before year-end to alter resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,329Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA, ESA, and ground-based surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the 98.7% "No" consensus. Large-yield events remain statistically rare, occurring on century-scale intervals, while improving detection technology like wide-field telescopes and orbital tracking has cataloged most threatening objects well in advance. Traders price in this established data and low baseline frequency. Residual uncertainty could stem from a late discovery of a small, dark asteroid evading current surveys or minor orbital perturbations, though such scenarios would require rapid confirmation before year-end to alter resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,329Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA, ESA, and ground-based surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the 98.7% "No" consensus. Large-yield events remain statistically rare, occurring on century-scale intervals, while improving detection technology like wide-field telescopes and orbital tracking has cataloged most threatening objects well in advance. Traders price in this established data and low baseline frequency. Residual uncertainty could stem from a late discovery of a small, dark asteroid evading current surveys or minor orbital perturbations, though such scenarios would require rapid confirmation before year-end to alter resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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