NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for potential Earth impacts over the next century, currently lists no near-Earth objects with credible collision probabilities for 2026, let alone those capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy—equivalent to a major nuclear detonation and roughly the scale of the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide but larger. This absence of tracked threats, combined with comprehensive monitoring by telescopes like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS detecting over 99% of kilometer-class hazards and most 140-meter objects, underpins the market's 96.9% implied probability for "No." Recent safe close approaches by small asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 GA2 in May affirm ongoing planetary defense efficacy, while record fireball reports this year remain sub-megaton. Realistic shifts would require discovery of an undetected 40-meter-class NEO on a precise trajectory, improbable given survey improvements, with daily CNEOS updates providing the next catalysts.