Oklahoma City Thunder's commanding regular-season performance and smooth playoff progression have solidified trader consensus around their 59.5% implied probability as 2026 NBA champion favorites. With a 64-18 record and the top Western Conference seed, the Thunder benefit from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP-caliber production, elite defensive schemes, and roster depth that has powered a sweep of the Phoenix Suns and a 3-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Lakers. San Antonio Spurs sit at 22.1% thanks to Victor Wembanyama's unmatched two-way impact in his third season, which has propelled a 62-20 finish and a 3-2 edge over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference semifinals. New York Knicks at 14.1% reflect their Eastern Conference strength after sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers, while lower-priced Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Minnesota Timberwolves trail due to tougher paths and less consistent form entering the later rounds.