Alianza Lima’s commanding aggregate table lead of 68 points from 32 matches underpins its elevated implied probability, yet the tightly contested Clausura—where Sporting Cristal, Universitario, and Sport Huancayo sit level on 31 points with two rounds remaining—keeps several sides viable. Universitario’s strong recent form, including late comebacks and superior goal difference in key fixtures, supports its 57.5% pricing despite trailing in the overall standings. Deportivo Garcilaso, Cusco FC, FBC Melgar, and Sport Huancayo remain in playoff contention through consistent results and home/away splits, with the final title likely hinging on Clausura outcomes and subsequent postseason matches. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these probabilities accounts for remaining schedule difficulty and historical performance patterns in the Peruvian top flight.