Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events. USGS historical catalogs document only a handful worldwide since 1900, with none exceeding 9.0 since the 2011 Tohoku event and the most recent major rupture an 8.8 in Kamchatka during 2025. Average recurrence intervals on major subduction zones span decades to centuries, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences signaling imminent full-margin failure. The narrow remaining window through December 2026 further compresses odds. A realistic challenge could arise from rapid rupture on a highly locked segment such as Cascadia or the Nankai Trough, though no such precursors have been reported.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7% tsansa
$312,775 Vol.
$312,775 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% tsansa
$312,775 Vol.
$312,775 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events. USGS historical catalogs document only a handful worldwide since 1900, with none exceeding 9.0 since the 2011 Tohoku event and the most recent major rupture an 8.8 in Kamchatka during 2025. Average recurrence intervals on major subduction zones span decades to centuries, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences signaling imminent full-margin failure. The narrow remaining window through December 2026 further compresses odds. A realistic challenge could arise from rapid rupture on a highly locked segment such as Cascadia or the Nankai Trough, though no such precursors have been reported.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$312,775Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events. USGS historical catalogs document only a handful worldwide since 1900, with none exceeding 9.0 since the 2011 Tohoku event and the most recent major rupture an 8.8 in Kamchatka during 2025. Average recurrence intervals on major subduction zones span decades to centuries, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences signaling imminent full-margin failure. The narrow remaining window through December 2026 further compresses odds. A realistic challenge could arise from rapid rupture on a highly locked segment such as Cascadia or the Nankai Trough, though no such precursors have been reported.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$312,775Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events. USGS historical catalogs document only a handful worldwide since 1900, with none exceeding 9.0 since the 2011 Tohoku event and the most recent major rupture an 8.8 in Kamchatka during 2025. Average recurrence intervals on major subduction zones span decades to centuries, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences signaling imminent full-margin failure. The narrow remaining window through December 2026 further compresses odds. A realistic challenge could arise from rapid rupture on a highly locked segment such as Cascadia or the Nankai Trough, though no such precursors have been reported.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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