Traders' strong conviction in a low probability for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems primarily from the exceptional rarity of these megathrust events, which USGS historical catalogs and paleoseismic records indicate recur globally only once every 25–50 years or longer. Only five instrumentally recorded M9+ quakes have occurred since 1900, with the most recent in 2011 off Tōhoku, Japan, and none in the current decade despite continuous monitoring of major subduction zones. Recent seismicity through mid-2026 has included several M7–8.8 events, such as sequences in Kamchatka, but none approach the threshold or signal accelerating stress that could trigger a full-margin rupture in the brief remaining window. While an unforeseen event in regions like Cascadia remains theoretically possible, current USGS data and the compressed timeline underpin the market-implied odds favoring no occurrence.