**Alaska’s 2026 Senate and gubernatorial races remain fluid heading into the August 18 top-four primary, with ranked-choice voting in the November general election amplifying uncertainty.** The U.S. Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a race rated toss-up or lean Republican by multiple forecasters; recent Alaska Survey Research and Siena polls show the two within a few points, reflecting Peltola’s strong name recognition after her prior House service and Sullivan’s established fundraising edge. The open gubernatorial seat—incumbent Republican Mike Dunleavy is term-limited—features a crowded field of roughly 17 candidates, including Democrats such as Tom Begich and independents or Republicans like Bernadette Wilson, Click Bishop, and David Bronson. Polling in this fragmented contest shows no dominant frontrunner, with support split across multiple contenders and significant undecided shares. These dynamics drive the elevated “Other” probability in the combo market, as traders price in the likelihood of mixed partisan outcomes or non-major-party advances under ranked-choice rules. The closely contested Senate seat and open, multi-candidate governor race create independent variables that reduce the odds of aligned sweeps, while the imminent primary and RCV general election introduce additional volatility before November 3. No single late-breaking event has shifted the balance dramatically in recent weeks; instead, the structure of Alaska’s electoral system and candidate fields continue to anchor current trader consensus.