Houthi forces seized Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including Mokha port, Perim (Mayyun) Island, and the Hanish Islands in mid-September 2026, granting strategic positions overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and enabling a declared naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels. This triggered a sharp drop in traceable transits—often 50-60% below prior levels—with daily crossings falling to single digits on some days amid missile and drone threats, though no maritime authority has declared the strait closed and limited traffic persists. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched counteroffensives in early October, recapturing coastal positions and advancing near Mokha, while broader regional tensions tied to the 2026 Iran conflict sustain elevated insurance costs and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Trader consensus on effective closure (typically defined by sustained low IMF PortWatch arrivals) reflects these territorial shifts and ongoing skirmishes rather than a total shutdown.