Recent polling in Minnesota’s open Senate seat shows a highly competitive contest between Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, with September surveys placing the race within a point or two and some averages near even. Forecasters rate it a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting a narrowing gap after the August primaries and voter dissatisfaction in a state that has trended Democratic but remains sensitive to statewide swings. Mississippi’s race, by contrast, features Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith holding a consistent mid-single-digit to larger lead over Democrat Scott Colom in available surveys, earning solid or likely Republican ratings across outlets. These patterns underpin trader consensus that Minnesota’s contest will finish closer on Election Day.