Israel leads the market with a 44.5% implied probability thanks to standout televote projections and polished live staging for Noam Bettan’s “Michelle” during the May 12 first semi-final in Vienna. Finland sits close behind at 33% on the strength of its high-energy violin-pop hybrid “Liekinheitin,” which delivered powerful jury and audience scores in dress rehearsals. Moldova, Croatia, and Greece trail with single-digit odds after solid but less dominant runs, while the rest of the field remains longshots. The ongoing boycott controversy over Israel’s participation has not derailed its momentum, and traders are now focused on final voting tallies expected later tonight.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Finland 33%
Moldova 5.1%
Croatia 2.1%
Greece 1.9%
$241,373 Vol.
$241,373 Vol.
May 12, 2026
Finland
33%
Moldova
5%
Croatia
2%
Greece
2%
Poland
1%
Lithuania
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Belgium
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Israel
54%
Finland 33%
Moldova 5.1%
Croatia 2.1%
Greece 1.9%
$241,373 Vol.
$241,373 Vol.
May 12, 2026
Finland
$41,036 Vol.
33%
Moldova
$31,208 Vol.
5%
Croatia
$24,095 Vol.
2%
Greece
$24,925 Vol.
2%
Poland
$15,427 Vol.
1%
Lithuania
$13,929 Vol.
<1%
Sweden
$14,507 Vol.
<1%
Belgium
$7,799 Vol.
<1%
Serbia
$11,005 Vol.
<1%
Israel
$17,794 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel leads the market with a 44.5% implied probability thanks to standout televote projections and polished live staging for Noam Bettan’s “Michelle” during the May 12 first semi-final in Vienna. Finland sits close behind at 33% on the strength of its high-energy violin-pop hybrid “Liekinheitin,” which delivered powerful jury and audience scores in dress rehearsals. Moldova, Croatia, and Greece trail with single-digit odds after solid but less dominant runs, while the rest of the field remains longshots. The ongoing boycott controversy over Israel’s participation has not derailed its momentum, and traders are now focused on final voting tallies expected later tonight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Binuksan ang Market: May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$241,373Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 12, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel leads the market with a 44.5% implied probability thanks to standout televote projections and polished live staging for Noam Bettan’s “Michelle” during the May 12 first semi-final in Vienna. Finland sits close behind at 33% on the strength of its high-energy violin-pop hybrid “Liekinheitin,” which delivered powerful jury and audience scores in dress rehearsals. Moldova, Croatia, and Greece trail with single-digit odds after solid but less dominant runs, while the rest of the field remains longshots. The ongoing boycott controversy over Israel’s participation has not derailed its momentum, and traders are now focused on final voting tallies expected later tonight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$241,373Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 12, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Israel leads the market with a 44.5% implied probability thanks to standout televote projections and polished live staging for Noam Bettan’s “Michelle” during the May 12 first semi-final in Vienna. Finland sits close behind at 33% on the strength of its high-energy violin-pop hybrid “Liekinheitin,” which delivered powerful jury and audience scores in dress rehearsals. Moldova, Croatia, and Greece trail with single-digit odds after solid but less dominant runs, while the rest of the field remains longshots. The ongoing boycott controversy over Israel’s participation has not derailed its momentum, and traders are now focused on final voting tallies expected later tonight.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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