Interlagos has posted an 86% safety car rate across recent Brazilian Grands Prix, driven by its short lap, elevation changes, tight infield sections that reward aggressive overtaking, and São Paulo’s November weather that frequently brings localized rain and reduced grip. The 2026 regulation overhaul, featuring altered power-unit deployment and higher closing speeds noted by drivers in prior events, adds uncertainty around mechanical reliability and first-lap or restart incidents. These elements create roughly even odds, with a clean, dry weekend or improved drainage from recent resurfacing able to suppress deployments while any shower or early contact would quickly push probability toward yes.