**Flávio Bolsonaro faces ongoing but preliminary legal scrutiny without imminent formal charges.** Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized a Federal Police investigation in April 2026 into alleged defamation by the senator against President Lula, with an initial 60-day window that has since passed without reported indictments. Separate scrutiny over his reported ties to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, revealed through leaked audio in May 2026 regarding funding for a Jair Bolsonaro biopic, has generated political damage ahead of the October presidential election but remains centered on financial and reputational questions rather than new criminal proceedings. Earlier embezzlement allegations were dismissed years ago, and no verified recent developments indicate accelerated prosecutorial action or arrest warrants before September 30. Traders’ 73.5% “No” pricing aligns with the pattern of extended preliminary inquiries and the absence of decisive judicial or executive steps in the current window.