Graham Platner withdrew from the 2026 Maine Senate race in early July after a former girlfriend publicly accused him of sexual assault in a 2021 incident, which he has denied. No federal or state charges have been filed or signaled in the intervening weeks despite the allegation entering the public record. Prosecutors typically require corroborating evidence or a formal complaint process before pursuing indictment on such matters, particularly for events years in the past. With only days remaining before the August 31 cutoff and no reported investigative developments, traders assign 98% probability to no charges. A sudden indictment remains possible if new evidence emerges or authorities act rapidly on the existing allegation, though such action lacks precedent in this case.