**Traders assign an 86.7% probability to “No” on Graham Platner facing criminal charges by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any reported law enforcement action or formal complaint advancing toward prosecution.** Platner, the former Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine, withdrew from the race in early July 2026 after a July 6 Politico report detailed a 2021 sexual assault allegation from ex-girlfriend Jenny Racicot; he has consistently denied the claim and related accusations of misconduct. As of mid-August 2026, Platner has continued outreach to supporters, explicitly noting in messages that no charges or investigation have been filed despite the allegation falling within the statute of limitations. Public reporting through late August shows no police report, arrest, indictment, or district attorney statements indicating an active criminal probe. The one-week window to August 31 leaves little time for standard charging procedures—such as evidence review, grand jury involvement in Maine, or formal complaints—to materialize without prior signals. Market pricing aligns with this timeline and the lack of verifiable developments since the allegations first surfaced publicly, treating criminal charges as a distinct and higher evidentiary threshold than political or civil scrutiny.