Strong early-2026 tornado activity, with roughly 1,000–1,135 confirmed or reported U.S. tornadoes through early August per NOAA Storm Prediction Center and NCEI data, underpins the 85.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ annual total. This pace exceeds the long-term Doppler-era average of about 1,200–1,233 tornadoes per year and follows elevated counts in 2024 (1,796) and 2025 (1,559). A developing strong El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0°C by mid-year, has coincided with enhanced jet-stream patterns and moisture transport favoring severe convective outbreaks, particularly across the Midwest. Remaining summer and fall months, plus any late-season tropical influences, provide additional upward pressure on the yearly tally, though model variability in convective initiation and verification rates introduces modest uncertainty around the final official count.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.1%
1150–1199 7.5%
1100–1149 3.7%
$81,752 Vol.
$81,752 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
3%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
8%
1200–1249
8%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.1%
1150–1199 7.5%
1100–1149 3.7%
$81,752 Vol.
$81,752 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,720 Vol.
3%
950–999
$3,618 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 Vol.
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
8%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
8%
1250+
$18,543 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong early-2026 tornado activity, with roughly 1,000–1,135 confirmed or reported U.S. tornadoes through early August per NOAA Storm Prediction Center and NCEI data, underpins the 85.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ annual total. This pace exceeds the long-term Doppler-era average of about 1,200–1,233 tornadoes per year and follows elevated counts in 2024 (1,796) and 2025 (1,559). A developing strong El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0°C by mid-year, has coincided with enhanced jet-stream patterns and moisture transport favoring severe convective outbreaks, particularly across the Midwest. Remaining summer and fall months, plus any late-season tropical influences, provide additional upward pressure on the yearly tally, though model variability in convective initiation and verification rates introduces modest uncertainty around the final official count.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$81,752Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 10, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong early-2026 tornado activity, with roughly 1,000–1,135 confirmed or reported U.S. tornadoes through early August per NOAA Storm Prediction Center and NCEI data, underpins the 85.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ annual total. This pace exceeds the long-term Doppler-era average of about 1,200–1,233 tornadoes per year and follows elevated counts in 2024 (1,796) and 2025 (1,559). A developing strong El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0°C by mid-year, has coincided with enhanced jet-stream patterns and moisture transport favoring severe convective outbreaks, particularly across the Midwest. Remaining summer and fall months, plus any late-season tropical influences, provide additional upward pressure on the yearly tally, though model variability in convective initiation and verification rates introduces modest uncertainty around the final official count.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$81,752Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 10, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong early-2026 tornado activity, with roughly 1,000–1,135 confirmed or reported U.S. tornadoes through early August per NOAA Storm Prediction Center and NCEI data, underpins the 85.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ annual total. This pace exceeds the long-term Doppler-era average of about 1,200–1,233 tornadoes per year and follows elevated counts in 2024 (1,796) and 2025 (1,559). A developing strong El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0°C by mid-year, has coincided with enhanced jet-stream patterns and moisture transport favoring severe convective outbreaks, particularly across the Midwest. Remaining summer and fall months, plus any late-season tropical influences, provide additional upward pressure on the yearly tally, though model variability in convective initiation and verification rates introduces modest uncertainty around the final official count.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong