**El Niño development, above-normal Northwest Pacific activity, and an already active early season with multiple July landfalls are the main drivers keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around 7–8 or more total landfalls in China for 2026.** China's National Climate Center projects 24–26 named storms forming in the basin overall, with 7–9 expected to strike the mainland—above the long-term average—amid strengthening El Niño conditions that typically boost Western Pacific genesis while favoring northeastward tracks toward eastern China. As of early August, the season has already seen several documented landfalls, including repeated strikes by Super Typhoon Bavi in Zhejiang and Typhoon Noul in Guangdong, consistent with an unusually active first half. Peak months (August–October) remain ahead, when model consensus and historical analogs point to additional systems capable of reaching Category 3+ intensity. Key variables differentiating the 7/8/>8 outcomes include the exact number and steering of late-season storms, potential recurvature under El Niño wind patterns, and any late intensification or dissipation over the South China Sea. Official seasonal outlooks and ongoing National Hurricane Center/China Meteorological Administration monitoring will provide the next major updates traders are watching.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 45%
8 44%
7 43%
6 41%
BAGO
BAGO
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
25%
5
36%
6
41%
7
43%
8
44%
Greater than 8
45%
Greater than 8 45%
8 44%
7 43%
6 41%
BAGO
BAGO
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$92 Vol.
25%
5
$0 Vol.
36%
6
$0 Vol.
41%
7
$0 Vol.
43%
8
$0 Vol.
44%
Greater than 8
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**El Niño development, above-normal Northwest Pacific activity, and an already active early season with multiple July landfalls are the main drivers keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around 7–8 or more total landfalls in China for 2026.** China's National Climate Center projects 24–26 named storms forming in the basin overall, with 7–9 expected to strike the mainland—above the long-term average—amid strengthening El Niño conditions that typically boost Western Pacific genesis while favoring northeastward tracks toward eastern China.
As of early August, the season has already seen several documented landfalls, including repeated strikes by Super Typhoon Bavi in Zhejiang and Typhoon Noul in Guangdong, consistent with an unusually active first half. Peak months (August–October) remain ahead, when model consensus and historical analogs point to additional systems capable of reaching Category 3+ intensity. Key variables differentiating the 7/8/>8 outcomes include the exact number and steering of late-season storms, potential recurvature under El Niño wind patterns, and any late intensification or dissipation over the South China Sea. Official seasonal outlooks and ongoing National Hurricane Center/China Meteorological Administration monitoring will provide the next major updates traders are watching.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$92Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**El Niño development, above-normal Northwest Pacific activity, and an already active early season with multiple July landfalls are the main drivers keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around 7–8 or more total landfalls in China for 2026.** China's National Climate Center projects 24–26 named storms forming in the basin overall, with 7–9 expected to strike the mainland—above the long-term average—amid strengthening El Niño conditions that typically boost Western Pacific genesis while favoring northeastward tracks toward eastern China.
As of early August, the season has already seen several documented landfalls, including repeated strikes by Super Typhoon Bavi in Zhejiang and Typhoon Noul in Guangdong, consistent with an unusually active first half. Peak months (August–October) remain ahead, when model consensus and historical analogs point to additional systems capable of reaching Category 3+ intensity. Key variables differentiating the 7/8/>8 outcomes include the exact number and steering of late-season storms, potential recurvature under El Niño wind patterns, and any late intensification or dissipation over the South China Sea. Official seasonal outlooks and ongoing National Hurricane Center/China Meteorological Administration monitoring will provide the next major updates traders are watching.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$92Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...**El Niño development, above-normal Northwest Pacific activity, and an already active early season with multiple July landfalls are the main drivers keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around 7–8 or more total landfalls in China for 2026.** China's National Climate Center projects 24–26 named storms forming in the basin overall, with 7–9 expected to strike the mainland—above the long-term average—amid strengthening El Niño conditions that typically boost Western Pacific genesis while favoring northeastward tracks toward eastern China. As of early August, the season has already seen several documented landfalls, including repeated strikes by Super Typhoon Bavi in Zhejiang and Typhoon Noul in Guangdong, consistent with an unusually active first half. Peak months (August–October) remain ahead, when model consensus and historical analogs point to additional systems capable of reaching Category 3+ intensity. Key variables differentiating the 7/8/>8 outcomes include the exact number and steering of late-season storms, potential recurvature under El Niño wind patterns, and any late intensification or dissipation over the South China Sea. Official seasonal outlooks and ongoing National Hurricane Center/China Meteorological Administration monitoring will provide the next major updates traders are watching.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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