Above-average Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2026, driven by evolving El Niño conditions and warmer sea surface temperatures, has produced an unusually high number of formations early in the season, with 16–17 named storms by early August. Multiple systems including Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin have already made landfall along China’s southern and eastern coasts under favorable westward and northwestward steering patterns, exceeding typical mid-season counts. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–29 total storms basin-wide, with 7–9 expected to strike China—above the long-term average—due to enhanced intensification potential and track clustering. With peak months still ahead and recent model consensus favoring continued activity, trader-implied probabilities lean toward 8 or more landfalls, reflecting observed momentum and climatological baselines.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
5 39%
8 35%
7 28%
6 25%
BAGO
BAGO
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
7%
5
27%
6
30%
7
18%
8
35%
Greater than 8
47%
5 39%
8 35%
7 28%
6 25%
BAGO
BAGO
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$319 Vol.
7%
5
$165 Vol.
27%
6
$419 Vol.
30%
7
$265 Vol.
18%
8
$110 Vol.
35%
Greater than 8
$189 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2026, driven by evolving El Niño conditions and warmer sea surface temperatures, has produced an unusually high number of formations early in the season, with 16–17 named storms by early August. Multiple systems including Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin have already made landfall along China’s southern and eastern coasts under favorable westward and northwestward steering patterns, exceeding typical mid-season counts. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–29 total storms basin-wide, with 7–9 expected to strike China—above the long-term average—due to enhanced intensification potential and track clustering. With peak months still ahead and recent model consensus favoring continued activity, trader-implied probabilities lean toward 8 or more landfalls, reflecting observed momentum and climatological baselines.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,467Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2026, driven by evolving El Niño conditions and warmer sea surface temperatures, has produced an unusually high number of formations early in the season, with 16–17 named storms by early August. Multiple systems including Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin have already made landfall along China’s southern and eastern coasts under favorable westward and northwestward steering patterns, exceeding typical mid-season counts. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–29 total storms basin-wide, with 7–9 expected to strike China—above the long-term average—due to enhanced intensification potential and track clustering. With peak months still ahead and recent model consensus favoring continued activity, trader-implied probabilities lean toward 8 or more landfalls, reflecting observed momentum and climatological baselines.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$1,467Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-average Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2026, driven by evolving El Niño conditions and warmer sea surface temperatures, has produced an unusually high number of formations early in the season, with 16–17 named storms by early August. Multiple systems including Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin have already made landfall along China’s southern and eastern coasts under favorable westward and northwestward steering patterns, exceeding typical mid-season counts. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–29 total storms basin-wide, with 7–9 expected to strike China—above the long-term average—due to enhanced intensification potential and track clustering. With peak months still ahead and recent model consensus favoring continued activity, trader-implied probabilities lean toward 8 or more landfalls, reflecting observed momentum and climatological baselines.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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