President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in response to protests against expanded ICE enforcement operations, most recently in January 2026 following an agent-involved shooting and subsequent demonstrations in Minneapolis. Earlier considerations arose in 2025 amid anti-deportation unrest in Los Angeles and attempts to deploy National Guard units in other cities, though those efforts faced court challenges and a Supreme Court ruling limiting alternative authorities under 10 U.S.C. § 12406. No invocation has occurred since 1992. With midterm elections scheduled for November 2026, traders monitor potential escalation tied to immigration enforcement, state-federal tensions, or election-related unrest as key variables that could shift the likelihood of presidential action under the statute.