The closely contested 54.5% implied probability on "No" for Lamar Jackson being traded by next season stems from stalled extension talks with the Baltimore Ravens, who restructured his deal in March to ease the $74.5 million 2026 cap figure while retaining the two-time MVP under a no-trade clause through 2027. Recent offseason developments, including limited suitor interest from teams like the Raiders and Jackson's history of prioritizing winning situations, have kept trade speculation alive without concrete movement. A strong 2026 campaign or resolved extension could solidify his stay, whereas further cap pressure or negotiation breakdowns might prompt a consent-based deal, though historical patterns show the Ravens rarely move established franchise quarterbacks mid-contract.