Recent US federal charges against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, including narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, weapons offenses, and a superseding October 2026 indictment adding allegations of overseeing torture of political prisoners and Americans, have advanced toward a June 2027 trial in Manhattan. Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, detained since their January 2026 capture in Caracas, maintain not guilty pleas and pursue dismissal on foreign leader immunity grounds. Trader consensus around a 50% chance of no prison time reflects uncertainty over conviction prospects, potential plea negotiations, or diplomatic resolutions amid ongoing Venezuela transition talks, while the 27.5% probability for 60+ years captures exposure to lengthy or life sentences on the most serious counts if convicted.