Sustained low-level circulation of SARS-CoV-2, with global test positivity at 3.4% and very low emergency department visits around 0.3%, underpins the 95.3% market-implied probability against a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026. CDC estimates show infections growing modestly in U.S. states with Rt near 1.08, yet hospitalizations remain limited and no novel high-virulence strain or zoonotic spillover has triggered WHO thresholds for pandemic status. Widespread population immunity from prior infections and vaccines continues to constrain severity, consistent with the virus's transition to endemic patterns since 2023. Realistic shifts could arise from rapid evolution of variants like BA.3.2 toward greater immune escape or an undetected animal-origin coronavirus achieving efficient human transmission, though current surveillance data show no such trajectory.