Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent lead over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in New Hampshire’s 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls showing her ahead by 5 to 11 points among likely voters. Ayotte’s incumbency, strong name recognition, and the state’s nonpartisan forecaster ratings of Likely Republican contribute to trader consensus favoring the GOP outcome at 81.5%. Warmington, the presumptive Democratic nominee and former Executive Council member, trails despite a competitive primary environment ahead of the September 8 contest. No major shifts in polling or late developments have narrowed the gap in recent weeks, leaving limited room for the Democratic side to close the implied probability deficit before November.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$16,376 Vol.
$16,376 Vol.

Republican
82%

Democrat
16%
$16,376 Vol.
$16,376 Vol.

Republican
82%

Democrat
16%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Binuksan ang Market: Oct 13, 2025, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent lead over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in New Hampshire’s 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls showing her ahead by 5 to 11 points among likely voters. Ayotte’s incumbency, strong name recognition, and the state’s nonpartisan forecaster ratings of Likely Republican contribute to trader consensus favoring the GOP outcome at 81.5%. Warmington, the presumptive Democratic nominee and former Executive Council member, trails despite a competitive primary environment ahead of the September 8 contest. No major shifts in polling or late developments have narrowed the gap in recent weeks, leaving limited room for the Democratic side to close the implied probability deficit before November.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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