Recent NSW state polling shows One Nation maintaining elevated primary support near 23-29 percent amid major-party weakness, with Labor at 29-32 percent and the Liberal-National Coalition at 18-25 percent ahead of the March 2027 election. This fragmentation keeps the contest for third place fluid, as One Nation’s regional and outer-suburban gains compete directly with Coalition voters while the Greens hold steady around 11-13 percent and smaller parties such as Legalise Cannabis or Shooters, Fishers and Farmers draw niche shares. Optional preferential voting and uneven geographic distribution further complicate seat and vote-share projections. Scheduled campaign launches, preference-deal announcements, and any late shifts in leader favorability could reorder the minor-party hierarchy before polling day.