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Teknolohiya·Llm

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

icon for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Teknolohiya·Llm

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14% tsansa
Polymarket

$68,662 Vol.

14% tsansa
Polymarket

$68,662 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86% implied probability against OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined in its charter as highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite rapid large language model (LLM) progress like GPT-5.5 topping benchmarks such as AA-Omniscience Accuracy at 57%. Recent developments, including the April 2026 dissolution of Microsoft exclusivity allowing multi-cloud deployment and ongoing Musk-OpenAI trial distractions, have shifted focus from breakthroughs to legal and partnership tensions, with no demonstrated AGI capabilities amid Anthropic's surging business adoption. Upcoming GPT-6 safety alignment and voice model launches in early 2026 offer potential catalysts, but timelines and regulatory scrutiny maintain skepticism.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$68,662
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86% implied probability against OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined in its charter as highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite rapid large language model (LLM) progress like GPT-5.5 topping benchmarks such as AA-Omniscience Accuracy at 57%. Recent developments, including the April 2026 dissolution of Microsoft exclusivity allowing multi-cloud deployment and ongoing Musk-OpenAI trial distractions, have shifted focus from breakthroughs to legal and partnership tensions, with no demonstrated AGI capabilities amid Anthropic's surging business adoption. Upcoming GPT-6 safety alignment and voice model launches in early 2026 offer potential catalysts, but timelines and regulatory scrutiny maintain skepticism.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$68,662
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 14% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 14¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 14% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" ay naka-generate ng $68.7K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Oct 28, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" ay 14% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 14% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.