Recent polling averages project the Partido Popular winning the most seats in Spain’s November 29 snap election but falling short of an absolute majority on its own, with estimates typically ranging from the mid-120s to low-140s depending on the survey. The distribution remains tight because small shifts in national vote share translate into sizable seat swings under Spain’s provincial d’Hondt system, while Vox’s gains and the left’s fragmentation create uncertainty over final bloc totals. The recent Urda rail accident has shifted campaign focus toward government accountability, potentially affecting late momentum. With less than a month until voting, turnout patterns in swing provinces and any further movement in the PP-PSOE gap could still alter the precise seat band for the leading party.