Recent polling averages project the Partido Popular and Vox securing 198–212 seats in the November 29 snap election, well above the 176 needed for an absolute majority in Congress. This stems from consistent surveys showing PP at roughly 32% and Vox near 19%, driven by voter shifts away from the PSOE-led government amid housing affordability pressures, regional governance disputes, and the collapse of supporting decrees. The left bloc, including a weakened Sumar, trails significantly and lacks viable coalition paths, while PP and Vox already share regional administrations and signal willingness to negotiate nationally. These trends have held across multiple pollsters since the election call in early October, supporting the current trader consensus on a right-wing parliamentary majority.