The federal criminal case against the Southern Poverty Law Center, indicted in April 2026 in the Middle District of Alabama on eleven counts of wire fraud, false statements to a bank, and conspiracy to commit money laundering, centers on allegations that the organization used donor funds to pay informants embedded in extremist groups from 2010 to 2023. A judge denied the SPLC’s motion to dismiss on vindictive prosecution grounds in August, and a former employee was added to the superseding indictment around the same time. The jury trial began in early October, but as of mid-October the proceedings remain ongoing without a verdict. Traders assign only a 7% chance of conviction this year given the case’s procedural timeline, the organization’s not-guilty plea and retained defense counsel, the absence of any reported plea deal, and the typical duration of complex federal fraud trials.