Azerbaijan holds the clearest edge in UEFA Nations League 2026-27 Group D2 thanks to its early results in the three-team round-robin, sitting atop the table with five points from three matches and a positive goal difference after a 1-1 draw away to Lithuania, a 0-0 home draw with Liechtenstein, and a 1-0 home win over Lithuania. Lithuania trails on four points with one win, one draw, and one loss, while Liechtenstein has managed just one point from two outings. These outcomes, combined with the remaining November fixtures, underpin the wide gap in implied probabilities, as traders weigh Azerbaijan’s unbeaten record and home advantage against the lower-ranked sides’ limited attacking output and historical struggles in the division. The market pricing reflects the current standings and recent form rather than any single standout performance.