**Recent developments have sharply reduced the likelihood of a formal US diesel export ban.** Surging diesel prices, driven by supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, prompted President Trump to signal support for restrictions in late September amid pressure from farmers, truckers, and Republican candidates ahead of the November midterms. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated reviews of full or partial options, while a Politico report on a potential 90-day ban was quickly denied by the White House. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and industry groups emphasized that an outright ban could reduce refinery output, raise gasoline and jet fuel prices, and disrupt global markets, favoring voluntary measures instead. On October 2, Trump ruled out the ban following G7 commitments to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency stocks, stating it was never seriously under consideration. This sequence of events has shifted trader consensus toward lower probabilities for an official announcement by late 2026 deadlines, though ongoing fuel price volatility or new geopolitical shocks could still influence policy discussions.