Recent reports indicate the U.S. Department of Justice is preparing to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban president Raúl Castro in connection with the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft operated by the Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue. Multiple officials familiar with the matter have confirmed to major outlets that prosecutors in Miami expect to unseal charges next week, tied to the incident that killed four Cuban Americans. This development, occurring amid broader Trump administration pressure on Cuba including possible military signals, has elevated the implied probability of federal charges to 66.5 percent in trader consensus. The move would require grand jury approval and could face diplomatic or legal hurdles before formal resolution.