The Justice Department under the Trump administration is advancing plans to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro, now 94, tied to his role as defense minister during the Cuban military's 1996 downing of two civilian planes operated by the Brothers to the Rescue group, which killed four Cuban exiles. Multiple officials familiar with the matter indicate prosecutors in Miami are preparing to unseal charges as early as next week, coinciding with heightened U.S. pressure on Havana amid broader diplomatic tensions. This development, requiring grand jury approval before formal filing, has shifted trader expectations toward a higher likelihood of charges being filed in the near term, as reflected in the current 60 percent implied probability for a positive resolution. No final action has occurred yet, leaving room for procedural delays or shifts in enforcement priorities.