Severe drought and prolonged heatwaves across central and eastern Europe have driven the Danube to record lows in Hungary and neighboring stretches as of early August 2026, disrupting shipping, hydropower, and nuclear cooling at facilities such as Paks. Trader consensus splits closely between mid-to-late September and full October recovery, reflecting uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn precipitation needed to replenish the basin. Short-term forecasts show no immediate relief, while seasonal patterns indicate that cooler, wetter conditions typically arrive after summer. A sustained dry spell or early heavy rains could quickly separate the leading intervals by altering hydrological models and navigation gauges.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhen will the Danube River return to normal levels?
September 15 - 30, 2026 32%
October 1 - 31, 2026 25%
September 1 - 14, 2026 18%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 9%
Before September 1, 2026
9%
September 1 - 14, 2026
18%
September 15 - 30, 2026
32%
October 1 - 31, 2026
25%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
9%
September 15 - 30, 2026 32%
October 1 - 31, 2026 25%
September 1 - 14, 2026 18%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 9%
Before September 1, 2026
9%
September 1 - 14, 2026
18%
September 15 - 30, 2026
32%
October 1 - 31, 2026
25%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
9%
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D..."Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Source
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...Severe drought and prolonged heatwaves across central and eastern Europe have driven the Danube to record lows in Hungary and neighboring stretches as of early August 2026, disrupting shipping, hydropower, and nuclear cooling at facilities such as Paks. Trader consensus splits closely between mid-to-late September and full October recovery, reflecting uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn precipitation needed to replenish the basin. Short-term forecasts show no immediate relief, while seasonal patterns indicate that cooler, wetter conditions typically arrive after summer. A sustained dry spell or early heavy rains could quickly separate the leading intervals by altering hydrological models and navigation gauges.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update


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