Skip to main content
icon for Saan ang ranggo ng 2026 sa mga pinakamainit na taon sa rekord?
Klima At Agham·Science

Saan ang ranggo ng 2026 sa mga pinakamainit na taon sa rekord?

icon for Saan ang ranggo ng 2026 sa mga pinakamainit na taon sa rekord?
Klima At Agham·Science

Saan ang ranggo ng 2026 sa mga pinakamainit na taon sa rekord?

1 69%

2 29%

3 1.8%

6 o mas mababa <1%

Polymarket

$3,299,826 Vol.

1 69%

2 29%

3 1.8%

6 o mas mababa <1%

Polymarket

$3,299,826 Vol.

1

$563,915 Vol.

69%

2

$389,622 Vol.

29%

3

$494,198 Vol.

2%

4

$509,374 Vol.

<1%

5

$811,751 Vol.

<1%

6 o mas mababa

$530,967 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Strong El Niño conditions strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with Niño-3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +1.5°C, represent the main driver lifting 2026 global temperature anomaly prospects. Year-to-date observations through July place 2026 among the top three or four warmest periods on record per NOAA and NASA data, building on the long-term warming trend where the ten hottest years have all occurred since 2015. This ENSO event, forecast to intensify through late 2026 with high model consensus for a very strong phase, adds substantial warmth via enhanced heat release from the ocean, though peak impacts often lag into the following year and introduce forecast uncertainty. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to a first- or second-place finish, consistent with official outlooks showing elevated odds for top rankings while noting divergence in seasonal models and measurement revisions could still shift final placement.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,299,826
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Strong El Niño conditions strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with Niño-3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +1.5°C, represent the main driver lifting 2026 global temperature anomaly prospects. Year-to-date observations through July place 2026 among the top three or four warmest periods on record per NOAA and NASA data, building on the long-term warming trend where the ten hottest years have all occurred since 2015. This ENSO event, forecast to intensify through late 2026 with high model consensus for a very strong phase, adds substantial warmth via enhanced heat release from the ocean, though peak impacts often lag into the following year and introduce forecast uncertainty. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to a first- or second-place finish, consistent with official outlooks showing elevated odds for top rankings while noting divergence in seasonal models and measurement revisions could still shift final placement.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,299,826
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Kaugnay

icon for Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

94%
icon for Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

7%
icon for Magkakaroon ba ng eksaktong 0 kumpirmadong VEI 4 o mas mataas na pagsabog ng bulkan sa buong mundo sa 2026?

Magkakaroon ba ng eksaktong 0 kumpirmadong VEI 4 o mas mataas na pagsabog ng bulkan sa buong mundo sa 2026?

51%
Oo

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Saan ang ranggo ng 2026 sa mga pinakamainit na taon sa rekord?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "1" sa 69%, sinusundan ng "2" sa 29%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 69¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 69% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Saan ang ranggo ng 2026 sa mga pinakamainit na taon sa rekord?" ay naka-generate ng $3.3 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 12, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Saan ang ranggo ng 2026 sa mga pinakamainit na taon sa rekord?," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Saan ang ranggo ng 2026 sa mga pinakamainit na taon sa rekord?" ay "1" sa 69%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 69% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "2" sa 29%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Saan ang ranggo ng 2026 sa mga pinakamainit na taon sa rekord?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.