Justin Gaethje holds the undisputed UFC lightweight title after his June 2026 TKO victory over Ilia Topuria, building on an interim belt win earlier that year against Paddy Pimblett. At 37, the champion is recovering from hand and knee injuries sustained in those bouts and has indicated he will not compete again before 2027, leaving no realistic window for a title change through December. Arman Tsarukyan sits as the clear next contender following his September knockout of Mauricio Ruffy and a six-fight win streak, yet UFC matchmakers have not scheduled a bout against Gaethje. With only three months remaining, trader consensus reflects the low probability of any title fight or vacancy occurring before year-end. Potential shifts remain tied to unforeseen injury developments or an abrupt retirement announcement.