Recent near-misses by Hurricane Lowell and Tropical Storm Lala in August and September 2026 have driven the market-implied probability of a Hawaii hurricane landfall before 2027 down sharply, aligning with the 82.5% trader consensus on “No.” Only two direct hurricane landfalls appear in the modern record—Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992—reflecting persistent steering patterns from subtropical ridges that typically divert Central Pacific systems westward or northwest of the islands. Above-normal 2026 activity tied to emerging El Niño conditions has increased tropical cyclone counts, yet forecast models from the National Hurricane Center show continued low odds of eye passage over land in the remaining weeks of the season. Cooling sea-surface temperatures near the archipelago further limit intensification close to shore. With peak season winding down and no active systems posing direct threats as of mid-September, the aggregated trader assessment emphasizes these climatological barriers.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
18% tsansa
$40,458 Vol.
$40,458 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
18% tsansa
$40,458 Vol.
$40,458 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.Recent near-misses by Hurricane Lowell and Tropical Storm Lala in August and September 2026 have driven the market-implied probability of a Hawaii hurricane landfall before 2027 down sharply, aligning with the 82.5% trader consensus on “No.” Only two direct hurricane landfalls appear in the modern record—Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992—reflecting persistent steering patterns from subtropical ridges that typically divert Central Pacific systems westward or northwest of the islands. Above-normal 2026 activity tied to emerging El Niño conditions has increased tropical cyclone counts, yet forecast models from the National Hurricane Center show continued low odds of eye passage over land in the remaining weeks of the season. Cooling sea-surface temperatures near the archipelago further limit intensification close to shore. With peak season winding down and no active systems posing direct threats as of mid-September, the aggregated trader assessment emphasizes these climatological barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$40,458Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.Recent near-misses by Hurricane Lowell and Tropical Storm Lala in August and September 2026 have driven the market-implied probability of a Hawaii hurricane landfall before 2027 down sharply, aligning with the 82.5% trader consensus on “No.” Only two direct hurricane landfalls appear in the modern record—Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992—reflecting persistent steering patterns from subtropical ridges that typically divert Central Pacific systems westward or northwest of the islands. Above-normal 2026 activity tied to emerging El Niño conditions has increased tropical cyclone counts, yet forecast models from the National Hurricane Center show continued low odds of eye passage over land in the remaining weeks of the season. Cooling sea-surface temperatures near the archipelago further limit intensification close to shore. With peak season winding down and no active systems posing direct threats as of mid-September, the aggregated trader assessment emphasizes these climatological barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
Volume
$40,458Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent near-misses by Hurricane Lowell and Tropical Storm Lala in August and September 2026 have driven the market-implied probability of a Hawaii hurricane landfall before 2027 down sharply, aligning with the 82.5% trader consensus on “No.” Only two direct hurricane landfalls appear in the modern record—Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992—reflecting persistent steering patterns from subtropical ridges that typically divert Central Pacific systems westward or northwest of the islands. Above-normal 2026 activity tied to emerging El Niño conditions has increased tropical cyclone counts, yet forecast models from the National Hurricane Center show continued low odds of eye passage over land in the remaining weeks of the season. Cooling sea-surface temperatures near the archipelago further limit intensification close to shore. With peak season winding down and no active systems posing direct threats as of mid-September, the aggregated trader assessment emphasizes these climatological barriers.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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