Traders assign an 89.7% implied probability that Aaron Rodgers will return for the 2026 NFL season because the 42-year-old quarterback has yet to announce retirement and remains in active discussions with the Pittsburgh Steelers. After a 2025 campaign on a one-year deal that ended in the playoffs, Rodgers left the door open for another year while the Steelers added weapons and defensive pieces around him in free agency. Official team comments indicate continued interest in retaining the four-time MVP as QB1, and no recent injury or performance issues have altered that stance. With organized team activities approaching and the decision timeline extending into mid-May, the market reflects broad consensus that Rodgers will opt to play rather than walk away before training camp.