Traders assign 97.8% probability against Alberta joining the United States due to formidable constitutional, legal, and political barriers under Canadian federalism and international norms. Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum asks only whether to initiate a binding separation vote from Canada, with polls showing committed separatist support near 16–28% and far lower backing for U.S. statehood. Limited U.S. diplomatic contacts with separatist groups and informal comments from officials have not produced negotiations or formal offers, while Ottawa and Alberta’s premier stress respect for Canadian sovereignty. Any path to U.S. accession would require successful independence first, followed by treaty-level agreements and U.S. congressional approval—steps without precedent or active momentum. Late shifts could stem only from unprecedented polling reversals or major bilateral policy changes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update2% tsansa
$2,189,388 Vol.
$2,189,388 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% tsansa
$2,189,388 Vol.
$2,189,388 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Traders assign 97.8% probability against Alberta joining the United States due to formidable constitutional, legal, and political barriers under Canadian federalism and international norms. Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum asks only whether to initiate a binding separation vote from Canada, with polls showing committed separatist support near 16–28% and far lower backing for U.S. statehood. Limited U.S. diplomatic contacts with separatist groups and informal comments from officials have not produced negotiations or formal offers, while Ottawa and Alberta’s premier stress respect for Canadian sovereignty. Any path to U.S. accession would require successful independence first, followed by treaty-level agreements and U.S. congressional approval—steps without precedent or active momentum. Late shifts could stem only from unprecedented polling reversals or major bilateral policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,189,388Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Traders assign 97.8% probability against Alberta joining the United States due to formidable constitutional, legal, and political barriers under Canadian federalism and international norms. Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum asks only whether to initiate a binding separation vote from Canada, with polls showing committed separatist support near 16–28% and far lower backing for U.S. statehood. Limited U.S. diplomatic contacts with separatist groups and informal comments from officials have not produced negotiations or formal offers, while Ottawa and Alberta’s premier stress respect for Canadian sovereignty. Any path to U.S. accession would require successful independence first, followed by treaty-level agreements and U.S. congressional approval—steps without precedent or active momentum. Late shifts could stem only from unprecedented polling reversals or major bilateral policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$2,189,388Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign 97.8% probability against Alberta joining the United States due to formidable constitutional, legal, and political barriers under Canadian federalism and international norms. Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum asks only whether to initiate a binding separation vote from Canada, with polls showing committed separatist support near 16–28% and far lower backing for U.S. statehood. Limited U.S. diplomatic contacts with separatist groups and informal comments from officials have not produced negotiations or formal offers, while Ottawa and Alberta’s premier stress respect for Canadian sovereignty. Any path to U.S. accession would require successful independence first, followed by treaty-level agreements and U.S. congressional approval—steps without precedent or active momentum. Late shifts could stem only from unprecedented polling reversals or major bilateral policy changes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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