Traders assign a 97.6% implied probability to no magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake striking California in 2026 because annual rates remain low despite elevated 30-year forecasts from the USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast. Historical recurrence intervals on major faults such as the San Andreas place the statewide odds of an M7+ event in any single year near 2–4%, with no significant foreshock sequences, accelerated slip rates, or updated model runs indicating elevated short-term risk through mid-2026. Recent seismic activity has stayed modest, featuring events below magnitude 6. Ongoing monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center shows stable background rates, though an unexpected multifault rupture or sudden change in strain accumulation could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
3% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Jan 1, 2027
3% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. Traders assign a 97.6% implied probability to no magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake striking California in 2026 because annual rates remain low despite elevated 30-year forecasts from the USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast. Historical recurrence intervals on major faults such as the San Andreas place the statewide odds of an M7+ event in any single year near 2–4%, with no significant foreshock sequences, accelerated slip rates, or updated model runs indicating elevated short-term risk through mid-2026. Recent seismic activity has stayed modest, featuring events below magnitude 6. Ongoing monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center shows stable background rates, though an unexpected multifault rupture or sudden change in strain accumulation could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$3,181Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. Traders assign a 97.6% implied probability to no magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake striking California in 2026 because annual rates remain low despite elevated 30-year forecasts from the USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast. Historical recurrence intervals on major faults such as the San Andreas place the statewide odds of an M7+ event in any single year near 2–4%, with no significant foreshock sequences, accelerated slip rates, or updated model runs indicating elevated short-term risk through mid-2026. Recent seismic activity has stayed modest, featuring events below magnitude 6. Ongoing monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center shows stable background rates, though an unexpected multifault rupture or sudden change in strain accumulation could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Volume
$3,181Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.6% implied probability to no magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquake striking California in 2026 because annual rates remain low despite elevated 30-year forecasts from the USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast. Historical recurrence intervals on major faults such as the San Andreas place the statewide odds of an M7+ event in any single year near 2–4%, with no significant foreshock sequences, accelerated slip rates, or updated model runs indicating elevated short-term risk through mid-2026. Recent seismic activity has stayed modest, featuring events below magnitude 6. Ongoing monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center shows stable background rates, though an unexpected multifault rupture or sudden change in strain accumulation could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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