Max Verstappen’s long-term Red Bull contract through 2028, combined with his age of 28 and status as a four-time champion, underpins the strong 82.5% implied probability he will not retire after the 2026 season. Despite early-season frustrations with the new regulations that produced his weakest start since 2015 and prompted March comments about possibly walking away, more recent remarks in April point to retirement still several years away. Team principals and analysts emphasize his competitive drive and influence on the sport, while exit clauses in his deal focus more on team switches than outright departure. These factors reflect trader consensus that short-term regulatory discontent is unlikely to end his career immediately.