Verstappen’s long-term Red Bull contract running through 2028, coupled with strong early-2026 form and consistent points finishes, anchors the market’s 85.5 percent implied probability that he will not retire at season’s end. Although the Dutch driver voiced frustration with the new power-unit regulations after the Japanese Grand Prix and briefly weighed an earlier exit, he has since reaffirmed his commitment to the current campaign and cited enjoyment of on-track competition as the deciding factor. Recent comments from team principals and FIA leadership emphasize that any departure would require activating a performance clause, an unlikely step given Verstappen’s continued podium contention and Red Bull’s strategic focus on the 2026 title fight. Historical patterns show that top drivers rarely walk away mid-contract while still winning races, a reality reflected in the current pricing.