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Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

icon for Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

50% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
50% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.House Armed Services Committee approval of H.R. 8800, the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, by a 44-12 vote in early June advanced the measure to the floor amid ongoing debates over defense spending levels, acquisition reforms, and policy riders. Recent Rules Committee action encountered setbacks when a June 30 procedural vote failed due to Republican defections, creating uncertainty about floor timing ahead of the July recess. Bipartisan committee support and the bill's annual tradition contrast with these internal divisions and competing legislative priorities, producing closely balanced trader odds near 50 percent. Floor passage by July 31 would likely hinge on leadership negotiations to secure a rule, amendment strategies, and turnout among rank-and-file members wary of specific provisions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities.

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 1, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.House Armed Services Committee approval of H.R. 8800, the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, by a 44-12 vote in early June advanced the measure to the floor amid ongoing debates over defense spending levels, acquisition reforms, and policy riders. Recent Rules Committee action encountered setbacks when a June 30 procedural vote failed due to Republican defections, creating uncertainty about floor timing ahead of the July recess. Bipartisan committee support and the bill's annual tradition contrast with these internal divisions and competing legislative priorities, producing closely balanced trader odds near 50 percent. Floor passage by July 31 would likely hinge on leadership negotiations to secure a rule, amendment strategies, and turnout among rank-and-file members wary of specific provisions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities.

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 1, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Ang "Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 50% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 50¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 50% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jul 1, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?" ay 50% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 50% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.