Trader consensus at 97% against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026 reflects entrenched bilateral constraints, including Mexico's explicit rejection of foreign troops on its soil by President Claudia Sheinbaum and the absence of congressional authorization or broad international support for such action. Ongoing U.S.-Mexico security cooperation on cartel enforcement, fugitive extraditions, and joint border exercises persists alongside trade frictions and tariff disputes, underscoring mutual economic interdependence under the USMCA framework. Recent U.S. military deployments remain confined to the American side of the border, focused on enforcement rather than cross-border operations. Late-breaking escalations, such as major cartel attacks on U.S. interests or shifts in terrorist designations, could still prompt limited strikes or policy adjustments, though these would face significant legal, diplomatic, and logistical hurdles before reaching full-scale invasion.