New Zealand enters the 2026 World Cup Group G as the clear underdog based on FIFA rankings, historical performance, and limited recent international success, driving trader consensus toward a 65.5% implied probability it finishes last. The group features Belgium, Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand, with the first matches set for June 15. Egypt and Iran sit in the middle tier, reflected in their lower probabilities around 15-16%, while Belgium’s superior squad depth and experience keep its last-place odds minimal at 3.1%. Pre-tournament factors include Iran’s reported visa and logistical hurdles that could disrupt preparation, alongside Belgium’s ongoing transitional phase. No matches have been played, so current pricing captures aggregate assessments of squad strength, head-to-head trends, and qualification paths rather than in-group results.