NASA's continuous near-Earth object (NEO) monitoring via CNEOS and ESA systems shows no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of a 1-megaton airburst or impact through the end of 2026, driving the 98.7% market-implied odds for "No." Advanced orbital modeling, radar tracking, and automated Sentry scans have ruled out threats at this energy scale, consistent with historical impact rates where megaton-class events occur roughly once per millennium. Minor fireballs and smaller NEO flybys observed earlier this year have not altered assessments. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a very late discovery of an undetected object or refined orbital data revealing an unexpected impact path, though current surveillance makes such developments highly improbable before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1% шанс
$116,329 Обс.
$116,329 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
1% шанс
$116,329 Обс.
$116,329 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's continuous near-Earth object (NEO) monitoring via CNEOS and ESA systems shows no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of a 1-megaton airburst or impact through the end of 2026, driving the 98.7% market-implied odds for "No." Advanced orbital modeling, radar tracking, and automated Sentry scans have ruled out threats at this energy scale, consistent with historical impact rates where megaton-class events occur roughly once per millennium. Minor fireballs and smaller NEO flybys observed earlier this year have not altered assessments. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a very late discovery of an undetected object or refined orbital data revealing an unexpected impact path, though current surveillance makes such developments highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$116,329Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's continuous near-Earth object (NEO) monitoring via CNEOS and ESA systems shows no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of a 1-megaton airburst or impact through the end of 2026, driving the 98.7% market-implied odds for "No." Advanced orbital modeling, radar tracking, and automated Sentry scans have ruled out threats at this energy scale, consistent with historical impact rates where megaton-class events occur roughly once per millennium. Minor fireballs and smaller NEO flybys observed earlier this year have not altered assessments. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a very late discovery of an undetected object or refined orbital data revealing an unexpected impact path, though current surveillance makes such developments highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$116,329Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's continuous near-Earth object (NEO) monitoring via CNEOS and ESA systems shows no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of a 1-megaton airburst or impact through the end of 2026, driving the 98.7% market-implied odds for "No." Advanced orbital modeling, radar tracking, and automated Sentry scans have ruled out threats at this energy scale, consistent with historical impact rates where megaton-class events occur roughly once per millennium. Minor fireballs and smaller NEO flybys observed earlier this year have not altered assessments. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a very late discovery of an undetected object or refined orbital data revealing an unexpected impact path, though current surveillance makes such developments highly improbable before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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